Cloudflare, a major content delivery network and cybersecurity provider, suffered a significant outage on November 18, 2025, disrupting services for platforms like X (formerly Twitter), ChatGPT, and thousands of other websites. The incident, which peaked at over 11,000 reports on Downdetector, stemmed from an internal bug (not DNS-related, per official statements) and was resolved within hours. This market asks whether Cloudflare will face another major malfunction by year's end—testing the resilience of their infrastructure amid growing global reliance on their edge network.

Context on Recent Outage: Per reports from The New York Times, CNBC, and Reuters, the November 18 event caused widespread 5xx errors and traffic spikes, impacting e-commerce, social media, and AI tools. Cloudflare's official postmortem (discussed on Reddit's r/programming) highlighted a "brain-dead bug" in their traffic management, but no root cause tied to recurring issues was disclosed.

Resolution Criteria

Resolved by: January 5, 2026 (to allow for reporting lags).
Yes if: At least one confirmed major outage (≥10,000 Downdetector reports or equivalent from Cloudflare status page/OpsGenie) between 12:00 UTC Nov 20, 2025, and 23:59 UTC Dec 31, 2025. Must be a service-disrupting event (e.g., global 5xx errors, not minor regional blips).
No if: No such event occurs.
Data Sources: Cloudflare's official status blog, Downdetector, Reuters/CNBC outage trackers. Disputes resolved by xAI oracle (neutral arbiter).
Edge Cases: DDoS mitigations or scheduled maintenance don't count unless they cause unintended widespread disruption.